Whether the next U.S. President would be Trump or Biden, its policy against China would not be changed because the Beijing government's real intention is to overtake Washington, and seeing that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has the initiative, the maritime strategy keeps heading for the Pacific Ocean as well. Although the quite accelerated nationalism could lead to a political change inside the CCP, ‘Sinocentrism' would not be moderated at all. With recovery of the national power, the foreign policy would return to the initial expansionism. Currently, China is aiming to annex the Senkaku Islands and the next target will be Okinawa. The only way for Japan to protect its future is to maintain and tighten the alliance with the U. S.
The COVID-19 pandemic that is disrupting the world at the moment could be deliberately caused by China. After the pandemic, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is likely to occupy the Senkaku immediately and subsequently invade Taiwan. We can see the sensational phrase ‘The Senkaku Islands could be seized within four days from the outbreak of war?' in the book Chinese Navy VS. Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force: Two Naval powers are already reversed written in collaboration of Mr. Tomohisa Takei, the 32nd Chief of Staff, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and Mr. Toshi Yoshihara, a former professor of the U.S. Naval War College, who published the original report titled Dragon Against the Sun: Chinese Views of Japanese Seapower.
Opening the admission for China into the World Trade Organization (WTO) has strengthened and developed the Chinese Naval power to the extent of above-mentioned power in the condition quite advantageous for the country. After that, around thirty thousand Japanese companies were located in China and so many American enterprises were settled in the world's most populous country that American people faced severe unemployment inside the U.S.
Under this circumstance, the COVID-19 pandemic has created the awareness of a supply chain problem that the restricted trade with China causes deficiency of parts for manufacturing and commodities. Today, Japan and the U.S. are striving to revision the supply chain for both supplying and procurement networks, especially banning the import of the Huawei products, which were equipped in U.S. machines and military products so far.
While the leaders in economic community have to do the groundworks for the coming decoupling, there is significant difference between opinions of Mr. Yoshiyuki Kasai, Chairman Emeritus of Central Japan Railway Company and Mr. Hiroaki Nakanishi, Chairman of KEIDANREN (Japan Business Federation) and Chairman of Hitachi, Ltd. The Conflicts between two leaders in Japanese economy being regarded strange, an article of The Wall Street Journal dated on September 15, reported that Mr. Nakanishi thoughtlessly insisted on no decoupling.
I traveled to Bern, Switzerland to report the Swiss Armed Forces under the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, when Japan were, under the protection of the U.S. forces, conducting back-door trade with China and the Soviet in the name of separation of politics and economics. Swiss people must participate in one-month military training a year and have chance to be promoted for efforts in the well-known universal conscription system. The heads of companies in this country can assume a field-officer class (the highest rank for private person) and join presidents' talks, which are equivalent to presidents' meetings of Keidanren. For example, if the Swiss government allocates budget for infrastructure, the presidents require the assignment of part of the expenditure to dual-use runways. In case Japanese presidents refer to military issues in the meetings of Keidanren, they will be sharply criticized by some groups like the Science Council of Japan. As Swiss business federation is similar to a Cabinet meeting in which military issues are discussed along with business, a person ignorant about military could not become a head of company in Switzerland.