コロナウイルスに対するインドの対応
上席研究員・シンガポール国立大学南アジア研究所客員研究員 ルーパク・ボラ
昨年12月下旬に中国の武漢で始まったコロナウイルスの大流行は、世界を驚愕させた。インドの場合も例外ではない。当初、パンデミックがインドに達していなかったため、予防措置として、中国人と他の感染が確認された国の国民の入国を禁止した。また、感染が拡大していた中国、イタリア、日本（ダイヤモンドプリンセス）などの国々からのインド国民の帰国を成功させた。
しかし、海外から戻ってきた人々の中から、コロナウイルス感染者が確認されると、インドの状況は変わった。4月6日午前9時（インド標準時（IST））では、3,666人の感染症例があり、109人が死亡した（出典：インド厚生省）。
インドの選択
2020年1月30日に最初のコロナウイルスの症例がインドで報告された1。その後、症例数は着実に増加している。政府は社会的距離を取ることの重要性を強調し、インド国民に不要な旅行を減らすように求めた。3月24日深夜（IST）に、専門家の意見や世界の状況を考慮して、21日間のロックダウンを宣言した。これは、インドの人口規模を考えると、世界最大のロックダウンである。ナレンドラ・モディ首相は、3月24日夜の演説で、「少数の不注意が、あなた、あなたの子供、あなたの両親、あなたの家族、あなたの友人、そして国全体に重大な危機を及ぼす。この不注意が続いた場合、インドがどれほどの支払いをすれば良いのかを見積もることは不可能だ」と述べた2。
コロナウイルスとの戦いにおけるインドの選択肢は何だろうか。
まず、インドは人口密度の高い国であるため、コロナウイルスの発生に対して厳しい対応を取る必要がある。国内のさまざまな地域でより多くの検査を実施する必要があるが、感染クラスターを見つけるには注意が必要だ。
第2に、何百万人もの人々が失業したので、ロックダウン期間が終了した後、経済成長を促進させる必要がある。しかし、ロックダウンは経済を混乱に陥らせたため後退するに違いない。
第3に、コロナウイルスの症例数が急増した場合に備え、人工呼吸器などの医療機器の生産に重点を置く必要がある。さらに、戦いの最前線にいる医師やその他の医療従事者をウイルスから保護するために、多くのPPE（個人用保護具）を生産する必要がある。
第4に、インドは対中貿易で巨額の赤字に苦しんでおり、これは国が長期的に緊急に取り組む必要がある。 2019年の中国とインドの貿易額は約926.8億ドルで、インドの貿易赤字は約567.7億ドルだった3。また、「医薬品有効成分」の輸入を中国に依存しているため4、コロナウイルスのようなパンデミックの時代に真剣に再検討する必要がある。
今後の課題
インドには、今後、巨大な課題が待ち受けている。
課題の第1は、封鎖が終了した後、移住労働者をどのように主要都市に呼び戻すかである。インド経済の推進力の1つは、世界の様々な地域に定住するインド人ディアスポラだ。ただし、他の国で大きな混乱が発生した場合、インドのディアスポラも影響を受ける可能性があり、これがインドへの送金に影響を及ぼす。
第2に、今回はインドがイノベーションを考え、農業主導のインド経済の仕組みを変える良い機会でもある。インドの一人当たりの所得は国際基準から見て、比較的低い。
第3に、インドはウイルスを地域感染のレベルに維持し、社会感染のレベルに移行しないようにするよう努力する必要がある。これは、ウイルスがコミュニティの感染レベルまで広がった場合、インドの医療システムの性質上、ウイルスの拡散を制御することが非常に困難となる可能性が高いためである。
ただし、インドでのコロナウイルスとの戦いの結果、欧米諸国と異なり、インドのコロナウイルス症例数は急増していない。さらに、十分な訓練を受けた医師と献身的な医療従事者の蓄積がある。
日本企業がヘルスケアの分野で豊富な経験を持っていることを考えると、この重要な時期にインドが日本などの国と協力する機会もある。
他の多くの国々と同様、これはインドにとっての死活問題を判断する瞬間である。インドのパンデミックへの対応は、今後何年にも亘るインドの行く末を決めることとなろう。
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1 India Today, Message in PM Modi's coronavirus lockdown speech
2 India Today, Message in PM Modi's coronavirus lockdown speech
3 livemint, India-China trade dips by nearly $3 billion in 2019 https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-china-trade-dips-by-nearly-3-billion-in-2019-11579011500398.html
4 The Print, India lists 38 drug raw materials for which it wants to end dependence on China
ルーパク・ボラ（Dr. Rupakjyoti Borah）
日本戦略研究フォーラム上席研究員、シンガポール国立大学南アジア研究所客員研究員。主著にThe Elephant and the Samurai: Why Japan Can Trust India, Kaveri Books ( March 2019）等がある。
INDIA'S RESPONSE TO THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
Senior Research Fellow, The Japan Forum for Strategic Studies
Visiting Research Fellow, National University of Singapore.
Dr Rupakjyoti Borah
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, which started off in the Chinese city of Wuhan in late December last year has taken the world by surprise. India’s case has been no different. In the initial period, the pandemic had not reached Indian shores and in a proactive measure, it had barred entry of Chinese citizens in addition to the nationals of some other afflicted countries. The country was also successful in bringing back its citizens from various parts of the world as in China, Italy, Japan (Diamond Princess) and others.
However, things started to change for India with more and more of its citizens being diagnosed with COVID-19, especially among people who have returned from foreign shores. As of 6th April, 9am Indian Standard Time (IST), the country had 3666 active cases with 109 deaths. (Source: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare)
INDIA’S OPTIONS
The country reported its first coronavirus case on January 301,2020. Thereafter the number of cases recorded a steady increase. The government emphasised the importance of social distancing while Indians were also asked to cut down on non-essential travel. However, taking into cognizance the opinion of experts and given the situation prevailing in different parts of the world, on 24th March midnight (India time) the country declared a 21-day lockdown, which is the world’s largest lockdown, given the size of India’s population. In his speech on March 24 evening during wherein he announced the lockdown, he noted that "carelessness of a few, ill-conceived notions of a few can put you, your children, your parents, your family, your friends, the entire country in grave jeopardy. It will be impossible to estimate the price India will have to pay if this carelessness continues."2
What are India’s options in the fight against coronavirus?
First, India will have to adopt a tough response to the COVID-19 outbreak as it is a densely populated country. There has to be more testing done in different parts of the country, while care has to be taken to find out the infection clusters.
Second, the country will have to find ways to kick-start the economy after the lockdown period ends, since it has displaced millions of people. However, the lockdown is sure to have some economic setbacks as it has sent the economy into a tizzy.
Third, India will have to put more emphasis on producing medical equipment like ventilators as these will be needed in case the number of coronavirus cases shoots up in the country. In addition, the country will have to produce an increasing number of PPE (Personal Protective Equipment), so that the doctors and the other health care workers who are at the front of this fight, can be protected from the virus.
Fourth, India suffers from a huge trade deficit vis-à-vis its trade with China and this is something that the country needs to urgently address in the long-term. Sino-Indian trade in 2019 stood at approximately $92.68 billion while India’s trade deficit stood at around $56.77 billion3. It also depends on China for the import of “active pharmaceutical ingredients”4 as in many pharmaceutical products and this is something which it will need to seriously think in times of pandemics like coronavirus.
CHALLENGES AHEAD
The struggles ahead for India are huge.
First, one of the big challenges for India will be how to bring back the migrant workers to the major cities once the lockdown ends. In addition, one of the drivers of the Indian economy has been the Indian Diaspora which is settled in different parts of the world. However, in case of significant disruptions in other countries, the Indian Diaspora may also be impacted and this in turn will impact remittances to the country.
Second, this is also a good opportunity for the country to think of innovation and change the way the agriculture-driven Indian economy works. The country’s per capita income is relatively low by international standards.
Third, the country will also need to struggle to keep the virus at the local transmission level and not allow it to move to the community transmission level. This is because if the virus spreads to the community transmission level, it may become very difficult to control the spread of the virus due to the nature of the healthcare system in India.
However, the good thing about the fight against coronavirus in India is that the number of coronavirus cases in India has not spiked up as has happened in some of the European countries as well as in countries like the US. In addition, the country has a good pool of well-trained doctors and dedicated health workers.
There are also opportunities for India to cooperate with countries like Japan at this critical juncture, given the wealth of experience that Japanese firms have in the field of healthcare.
Be that as it may, like so many other countries, this is a do-or-die moment for India. The way the country responds to this pandemic, will decide its trajectory for many years to come.
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1 India Today, Message in PM Modi's coronavirus lockdown speech
2 India Today, Message in PM Modi's coronavirus lockdown speech
3 livemint, India-China trade dips by nearly $3 billion in 2019 https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-china-trade-dips-by-nearly-3-billion-in-2019-11579011500398.html
4 The Print, India lists 38 drug raw materials for which it wants to end dependence on China
Dr Rupakjyoti Borah
Dr. Rupakjyoti Borah is a Senior Research Fellow with the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, Tokyo, and a Visiting Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore. His books include The Elephant and the Samurai: Why Japan Can Trust India and Act-East via the Northeast. The views expressed are personal.
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, which started off in the Chinese city of Wuhan in late December last year has taken the world by surprise. India’s case has been no different. In the initial period, the pandemic had not reached Indian shores and in a proactive measure, it had barred entry of Chinese citizens in addition to the nationals of some other afflicted countries. The country was also successful in bringing back its citizens from various parts of the world as in China, Italy, Japan (Diamond Princess) and others.
However, things started to change for India with more and more of its citizens being diagnosed with COVID-19, especially among people who have returned from foreign shores. As of 6th April, 9am Indian Standard Time (IST), the country had 3666 active cases with 109 deaths. (Source: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare)
What are India’s options in the fight against coronavirus?
First, India will have to adopt a tough response to the COVID-19 outbreak as it is a densely populated country. There has to be more testing done in different parts of the country, while care has to be taken to find out the infection clusters.
Second, the country will have to find ways to kick-start the economy after the lockdown period ends, since it has displaced millions of people. However, the lockdown is sure to have some economic setbacks as it has sent the economy into a tizzy.
Third, India will have to put more emphasis on producing medical equipment like ventilators as these will be needed in case the number of coronavirus cases shoots up in the country. In addition, the country will have to produce an increasing number of PPE (Personal Protective Equipment), so that the doctors and the other health care workers who are at the front of this fight, can be protected from the virus.
Fourth, India suffers from a huge trade deficit vis-à-vis its trade with China and this is something that the country needs to urgently address in the long-term. Sino-Indian trade in 2019 stood at approximately $92.68 billion while India’s trade deficit stood at around $56.77 billion3. It also depends on China for the import of “active pharmaceutical ingredients”4 as in many pharmaceutical products and this is something which it will need to seriously think in times of pandemics like coronavirus.
First, one of the big challenges for India will be how to bring back the migrant workers to the major cities once the lockdown ends. In addition, one of the drivers of the Indian economy has been the Indian Diaspora which is settled in different parts of the world. However, in case of significant disruptions in other countries, the Indian Diaspora may also be impacted and this in turn will impact remittances to the country.
Second, this is also a good opportunity for the country to think of innovation and change the way the agriculture-driven Indian economy works. The country’s per capita income is relatively low by international standards.
Third, the country will also need to struggle to keep the virus at the local transmission level and not allow it to move to the community transmission level. This is because if the virus spreads to the community transmission level, it may become very difficult to control the spread of the virus due to the nature of the healthcare system in India.
However, the good thing about the fight against coronavirus in India is that the number of coronavirus cases in India has not spiked up as has happened in some of the European countries as well as in countries like the US. In addition, the country has a good pool of well-trained doctors and dedicated health workers.
There are also opportunities for India to cooperate with countries like Japan at this critical juncture, given the wealth of experience that Japanese firms have in the field of healthcare.
Be that as it may, like so many other countries, this is a do-or-die moment for India. The way the country responds to this pandemic, will decide its trajectory for many years to come.