The War and Nationalism in East Asia
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Professor Emeritus, National Defense Academy of Japan／ Honorary Professor, Tokyo International University Tomohide MURAI
The Countries with War and The Countries without War
Behaviors of countries can be expected when we set the eyes on the character of the government. Each government of various countries in the world has each strong point and different characters. The character means, for example, the governments give importance on Nationalism, or economic development, or democracy. In addition to these, the nationalism, economic development and democracy consists of the legitimacy of governments.
With what kinds of characters urge states to war? Soldiers in the battlefield sacrifice their lives as smaller value for what they believe larger value. In other words, people cannot fight wars without what they believe more valuable than their lives.
States who take importance on the Nationalism have tendency not to hesitate to start wars. In these states, a nationalized ethnic group (hereafter Nation) have larger value than each person (as one by one). Also, these persons are taught to believe that it is a natural to throw away their lives for more valuable own nation. In this sense, the people of these states do not hesitate to sacrifice their lives for the nation, which are more valuable than their own personal lives.
The term of nation as it consists of the Nationalism in this paper, is not races categorized the people by their appearances (genes) nor nationalities but the group of people who strongly believe that we have a common destiny formed (or even imagined) historically. Regarding the term of nation, the words like ‘a nationalized ethnic groups are national because their members are passionately and unanimously believe that they are the nation' are mentioned frequently. For example, Jewish are consisted by a lot of races but a Nation which believes a common destiny.
Besides, since religions are larger value than the lives of each believer, the religion tells that it is the supreme conduct for its believers to devote their lives for the religion itself. Therefore, the religions hold great strength because it secures the route for heaven if the believers devote their lives. There was also a Buddhist sect, called Ikkōshū, who held the strongest combat strength during the Warring States (Sengoku) period of Japan.
However, the governments do not educate the people that economic developments have larger value than their lives in the states taking importance on economic developments. And there are no people who sacrifice their lives for money. So, thresholds of these economic-oriented states are relatively high.
And the governments of democratic states do not tell the people to throw away their lives for the democracy. The government of a democratic state maintains its power with the consent of its people, and the most necessary qualification for the government to maintain its power is the ability to persuade the people. From this reason, leaders of democratic states tend to try to solve the problems by persuasion which they are good at, rather than war, even when problems occur in relation with foreign countries (Norm Model).
In addition, high transparent decision-making process can prevent the war caused by the misperception (Structural Model). Further, democratic procedures are time-consuming and unsuitable for "quickness-prized" warfare. In short, the democracy is not suited to the war (Democratic Peace)1. Therefore, the Nationalism for change the status-quo in neighboring region becomes the threats for the security of neighboring states.
The Nationalism of the U.S.
In the United States, the Stars and Stripes, the American national flag, are waving in any public facility and American people sing their national anthem, the Star-spangled Banner, in various events. In the U.S., the killed or injured persons in war are respected and insulting them is one of the social and political taboos. At the same time, the U.S. is a sort of religious country because 80% of American people believes the existence of the God and 40% of the population go to churches every week. There isn't Nationalism based not on a body of blood-related community but there exists Nationalism in a sense that the community holds a common destiny in the U.S..
Originally, the U.S. where foreign immigrants has established has to be a superior sovereign state than other states like "City upon Hill2". This is simply because no one want to immigrate to the inferior (less attractive) country than the origin. That is why the U.S. has to be the best in the world and the U.S. must defeat states who challenge the American value. After the post- World War II world, the U.S. had knocked out the No.2 rival states.
Incidentally, there is a weak point in the American justice. That is a fact that American people believe that there is something more valuable than their lives and the justice always wins. This leads an American tendency of thinking that the war they cannot win is not justified. To win the war means, on one hand, that the state can attain the aim of war before the damage excess the limit of capacity which the state can tolerant. On the other hand, to lose a war means that the damage excesses the limit of capacity the state can tolerant before the state can attain the aim of the war. Therefore, if the purpose of the war could not be achieved, the war was prolonged and only the number of deaths increased, the American people begin to think that the war is not the war of justice. And then, they stop to fight the war.
In Vietnam War, the U.S. retreated the soldiers from Indochina by the causalities of Americans excess over 50,000 before they attained the aim of the war. The limits of American capacities are determined by the national interests related the war. WWII was a vital war which closely related American national interests of defending American values against the fascism, and if it lost, there was a sense of crisis that the U.S. might be occupied by enemies. Therefore, the U. S. continued to fight the war with enduring more than 300,000 killed in the war. On the other hand, the Vietnam War was a war in which the U.S. could not be occupied even if it was defeated, and the sense of crisis for the American people was not high and the permissible limit of damage was small.
The Nationalism of China
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a nationalist government that overthrew the Nationalist government of "Hanjian (traitor) as a foreign puppet," with the Nationalism of "anti-Japanese national united front" instead of communism. Because it was basically a Nationalism-relied government rather than communism, it was able to maintain its power even after the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (hereafter USSR) and the legitimacy of communism fell to the ground. The Nationalism is the only legitimacy for the CCP administration, which has denied democracy and faced at slowing economic growth rate, can now rely on.
The current slogan of the CCP is "Great Reconstruction of the Chinese People/ Make China Great Again". Then, what is "the great reconstruction of the Chinese people"? When Chinese people hear this slogan, they imagine the revival of the great Chinese empire, which dominated about 30% of GDP in the world in 19th century.
Then, what is the difference between "the great Chinese empire" and the present China? Comparing the Chinese Empire 200 years ago with China today, China has lost her 2 million km2 territory in the north and west, and many tributary states in the east. The lost northern territory is now a part of Russia, the military great power, and the territory may difficult to be regained.
On the other hand, it is possible to extend China's influence to Central Asian countries and Southeast Asian countries in the south and west, which are weaker than China. China is trying to expand its sphere of influence by using both her military power in the South China Sea, where military power is valid, and her economic power in distant places where military power does not reach. This is the essence of "One Belt, One Road."
The Chinese empire consisted of the mainland where the Han Chinese lived, the feudal territories directly governed the different ethnicities, and the tributary foreign nations that indirectly governed through the rulers of the region. However, from the middle of the 19th century, China lost its tributary nations to China due to the invasion of Western powers. So, if "the great reconstruction of the Chinese people" means the revival of the Chinese empire, China must regain the lost tributary nations. The CCP is trying to strengthen its influence on neighboring states and form a new tributary nation (Neocolonialism).
However, the slogan "Great Reconstruction of the Chinese People" has a major weakness. What is the Chinese people in the first place? According to the CCP, there are 55 ethnic minorities in the People's Republic of China (PRC) without the Han Chinese. In the early days of the founding of the PRC, the CCP claimed that "the PRC is a multi-ethnic state and like a large family with equal rights for each ethnic group." At that time, he reflected on the history of Han Chinese dominating ethnic group and criticized the tendency of Han Chinese to look down on ethnic minorities as "Han Chauvinism."
However, the current CCP does not recognize the rights of ethnic minorities living in areas that occupy 60% of the land area and have abundant natural resources, and insists on "Chinese people" that integrate Han Chinese and ethnic minorities. However, they are trying to deny the existence of ethnic minorities. Uighurs and Tibetans, who believe that they have a different destiny from the Han Chinese, have sense of vulnerability against such policies of the CCP, and their resistances against the CPP's policies currently in progress.
The Nationalism of Russia
According to a pollster in Russia ("Russia Be-yond," April 2016), 64% of Russians are dissatisfied with Russia's current position in the world and miss the Soviet era3. Entering the 21st century, the states which was the former territory of Russia during the time of USSR joined the military alliance (NATO), they are the three Baltic countries, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria. Ukraine is also acting hostile to Russia.
The biggest reason why Vladimir Putin is supported by the Russian people is the image that he is trying to dispel the ethnic humiliation of the Russians. In fact, in 2008 he invaded Georgia, and in 2014 he annexed the Crimean Peninsula in southern Ukraine and furthermore occupied a part of eastern Ukraine. Putin, who is trying to regain his influence over lost Soviet territories, has satisfied Russian nationalist sentiment and is the basis for the people's support for him.
On the other hand, Russia had an average annual economic growth of 7% from 2000 to 2008, but the economic growth rate dropped to 0.85% from 2009 to 2018 and Russian public grew their dissatisfaction. In 2019, there were many protests against Putin in rural areas. Now, the Nationalism may be the key policy for President Putin to increase the supports from the people.
The Aleksandr III of Russia, the one who was praised by Putin, said "We must always remember that we are surrounded by enemies and nations that hate us, and we Russians have no friends. We don't need any friends or allies, because even the best allies probably will betray us. There are only two credible allies for us: the Russian Army and the Navy4."
However, when Russia looks the east, the situation is different. A huge China is adjacent to the other side of the 4,300km border, and the population of the Russian side (Far East) of the border is 6 million, while the population of the Chinese side (3 northeastern provinces) accumulates 130 million. The eastern part of Russia is under huge pressure from China.
Although Russia's western policy, which Russia is trying to regain the lost Soviet territory in one hand, in the other hand in eastern part Russia signed the 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship, and Russia is striving to maintain the status quo by demarcating borders in a manner of compromising each claim in 2004. Therefore, Putin's Russian Nationalism is dangerous in Europe, where Russia tries to change the status quo but is less dangerous in East Asia, where he tries to maintain the status quo.
The Nationalism of Korean Peninsula
In the Korean Peninsula, where ruled by Japan for 35 years and was divided into north and south even after independence, and where American troops are still stationing in South Korea, there exist several Nationalisms such as Anti-Japanese Nationalism, anti-American Nationalism, and North-South-unification Nationalism.
After Japan withdrew, the Korean Peninsula became independent, but the first Prime Minister of North Korea was a former Soviet army captain and a "a puppet of USSR." On the other hand, the first president of South Korea was a Korean resident in the U.S. who came from Hawaii by an aircraft of U.S. Forces and he was also "a puppet of the United States."
The most important legitimacy for the governments of these emerging independent nations is Nationalism, which appeals that they are not under foreign control, but neither North nor South Korea was not the regime founded upon the Nationalism.
However, the Korean War began in 1950 drastically changed the characters of both governments. In the Korean War North Korean slogan was the unification of peninsula. In the other side, South Korea took action to protect the anti-communist fortress from the invasion of communism, that is, to maintain the division of Korean peninsula. As a result, North Korea could find their raison d'être as a nationalist government aiming for the national unity, while South Korea came to difficult to counter the criticism that North Korea claims that "The south is a puppet of the U.S." Since then, South Korea has been unable to claim anti-American nationalism, and tried to cover its weaknesses of their raison d'être as a nationalist regime with trumpeting Anti-Japanese Nationalism.
After that, the economy grew and democratization progressed in South Korea, and the government can claim their legitimacy bases on their economic growth and democracy. In addition, South Korean President Moon Jae-in is now trying to strengthen the legitimacy of the administration by putting the vague North-South-Unification Nationalism in the foreground. President Moon raised that "aiming to unify the Korean Peninsula by 2045" (Liberation Day of Korea, August 15, 2019)5. Although this claim means to change the status quo inside the Korean Peninsula, it remains the status quo outside Korean Peninsula.
On the other hand, North Korea failed in economic growth, its politics fell into extreme a cult of personality, and its democracy was disappeared. The only legitimacy that North Korea can rely on today is the North-South-Unification Nationalism. North Korea has to face at the realities not only made a big difference in economic power but also inferior in military power. And North Korea is trying to maintain the status quo while shouting the Nationalism which North Korean regime only can find the legitimacy. A North-South-Unification Nationalism claimed by North Korea is also "One state, One nation, Two governments, and Two systems," named "Confederal Republic of Korea," and the status quo is basically maintained. In other words, none of the Nationalism claimed by the current both regimes in North and South are intended to change the current circumstance outside Korean Peninsula.
From "Hide one's Capacity and Bide one's time" to "Active Response"
In the latter part of the Cold War, the U.S. provided economic and military assistances to the second enemy, China, in order to counter the first enemy, USSR. Even after the collapse of the USSR, the U.S. assistance policy for China did not change (Engagement Policy). At that time, although there were objections to give assistance to China, the communist dictatorship, as glowing future enemy for the U.S., the U.S. government had insisted that economic assistance would promote democratization in China and persuaded the oppositions (Lipset's Hypothesis)6. The U.S. government was entrapped in unfounded optimism.
However, China, which has made great economic and military development and gained confidence, decided to challenge the American hegemony. It was a strategy to act inconspicuously at first and to act positively when the opportunity came.
In 2012, Xi Jinping declared that "the great revival of the Chinese nation" to be a "Chinese Dream," a policy to expand the Chinese sphere of influence to the world and he began to bring the policy to the forefront7. Meanwhile, in the U.S., he announced in 2013 that President Obama would reduce his commitment to the world by declaring that "he is not a police officer in the world." A power shift over world hegemony has begun.
The CCP's foreign strategy start to move in the 1980s, when Chinese economic reforms have begun. During 1980s, it was "No alliance, No hegemonic supremacy, No prominence", but in the 1990s, "Observe carefully（冷静観察）; Secure our position（穏住陣脚）; Cope with affairs calmly（沈着応付）; Hide our capacity and bide our time（韜光養晦）; be good at maintaining a low profile（決不当頭）; and never claim leadership（善于守拙）". At that time, when China was not confident in her strength, it can be regarded as the core of Chinese strategy that "Hide our capacity and bide our time（韜光養晦）."
However, China's current self-image has changed significantly from the one in 1990s. In other words, both the economic and military power have increased dramatically, and foreign refraining strategy of "Hide our capacity and bide our time" became a ruin of the past. The latest Chinese self-image is that the time has come for the world to recognize the power of China.
"One Belt, One Road" Initiative
In 2013, Xi Jinping revealed "One Belt, One Road" (hereafter Belt and Road Initiative: BRI), an initiative for building a world-wide Chinese economic sphere, which imagined the ancient Silk Road. In the word "One Belt" means a ground route centered railway transportation system heading from western China to Europe and the Baltic Sea via Central Asia and Russia. The international trains for exclusive use of containerized cargo running this route, a way "faster than by Sea and cheaper than by Air," are operated frequently more than one train per a day because of a strong pushing by Chinese government.
On the other hand, "One Road" means a marine route centered shipping transportation heading from harbors located in Fujian Province to southern coast of Italy via the South China Sea, Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea. Then, China aims at improving older harbors, abducting rights and interests of the harbors, developing marine transportation systems, and securing the route for importing vital natural resources. In addition, there is a disturbing trend China reaches their arms to the South Pacific and further to Latin America via the South China Sea in recent years.
However, these recent Chinese traits have evoked Australian backlash against inroads into the South Pacific and American backlash against the Latin America. And China is trying to explore the "Silk Road on Ice" connecting a route to Europe via Arctic Circle by pretending to commit the global warming problem as a rare opportunity8. This policy is evoking Russian backlash.
As another aspect, Chinese BRI includes the "debt trap" diplomacy. One of the "debt trap" diplomacies can be found at Hanbantota Sea Port in southern Shri Lanka. At Hanbantota, Chinese government took the concession in exchange for a debt relief of about 1,100,000,000 USD9. Also, Djibouti, a country located on the strategically important point for marine transportation from the Arabian Sea to the Suez Canal, has owned huge debt that accumulated 90% of her GDP against China. At this place, China secured the first oversea military base，"Chinese People's Liberation Army Support Base in Djibouti，" inside the area of Djibouti Free Trade Zone (FTZ) in 201710.
Since the world witnessed these circumstances, it can be observed the trend which recipient countries located along with "One Belt, One Road" re-examine the projects. One of these trends, Tanzanian government stopped the 1trilion-scale project of Bagamoyo Harbor development which Tanzania signed with Chinese government. President John P. J. Magufuli of Tanzania stated "the conditions proposed by China were aberrant such as 33 years of concession and 99 years of leasing right."
Destabilizing Chinese Economy
In 2008 when the global financial crisis was occurred and spread its effect around the world from the Wall street of New York, as some part of people lost the trust for American model of capitalism, the voice "Here comes the age of Chinese model of economy" became louder and louder. The CCP-touting "Chinese model" is that "Dictatorship + Market-oriented Economy +Nationalism." While so-called "Socialism with Chinese characteristics" model provided rapid economic growth for the country, it is also "Cold Capitalism" which provoked the huge gap between the rich and the poor and environmental pollution at the same time. In addition, we can find many similar characters with as "Developmental Dictatorship" in its model. So, it is not unique model of the CCP.
There are large surplus of the products and producing factories that are created by enormous investments in China when the global financial crisis was occurred by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The budget deficits of Chinese central government were increased by making up for the deficits of the state-owned enterprises. In 2020, defaults on an obligation occur one after another in the state-owned enterprise of a coal major and the semiconductor major, and the default on an obligation corporate bond amounts to about 20 billion USD (2 trillion JPY)11.
Besides, the labor cost is becoming higher in China than other neighboring Asian countries. Although it could be seen that there was a movement which foreign capitals change their offices and factories to outside China, the movement is accelerated by the pandemic of COVID-19. If many of foreign capitals retreated from China, it will give serious damage and unemployment will create the social unrest. Today, the ratio of unemployment in mainland China has reached about 20% including migrant workers from countryside. It turned to be difficult to realize the public commitment for making GDP of 2010 double until 2020 by CCP. When the commitment will not be realized, it will become a trigger to bring about a struggle for the power inside CCP. The worsening of Chinese domestic economy as a disease of internal organ should be serious.
Extravagance and Impatience of Xi Jinping
Basically, Chinese economic growth are sustained by the both labor force and expansion of capital. Considering the population of working age, from 15 to 64 years old, there is an analysis pointed that it has begun to decrease since 2010, total population of China will be decreased 100 million until 2030 and about 200 million until 2050. In addition, while Chinese government renounced the one-child policy, the total fertility rate (TFR), a ratio one female Chinese give birth children, dropped to 1.0 in urban area of China (1.4 in Japan). From these numbers, it is natural that Chinese economy has been already peaked out and economic growth rate is dropped. Furthermore, the foreign exchange reserve has been also passed the peak in 2014.
Although some resources mentioned Chinese GDP will excess the American one, there are also many prospects that Indian population excess the Chinese one at same timing12. Besides, some people predicts American GDP will excess Chinese one in 2050 again. These prospects mean now is the last chance to expand Chinese influence over the world. This is why CCP is in a hurry.
Domestically, Xi Jinping strengthen his assumption of power and systemized further toward personal dictatorship. President Xi fired executives officers in Military Commission of the Central Committee of CCP and Ministry of Public Security by the corruption charges and replacing their position by the individuals who Xi trust. Furthermore, he took the highest position of the decision–making organizations13 inside the central CCP.
Also, Xi changed the constitution and abolished the limited term of services as the President. On the other hand, he committed the large-scale campaign that 25,000 officials are revealed to exposure the political corruptions and wiped out his rivals. There are increased number of sacrifices because of these power struggles. And Xi has made suppression of freedom of speech in more strict tense.
For the foreign affairs, it can be seen an increasing tendency to shift domestic dissatisfactions to the oversea for avoiding domestic collisions of rights and profits (Scapegoat Strategy). And Chinese aggressive actions has made international circumstances unstable. If Xi wants to realize life-long President of China, he may need an achievement which all Chinese people appraised and he is in a harry to accomplish it.
The military operation aiming to occupy small islands such as the Kinmen and Matsu Islands, located just 2km far from the coastline of mainland (about 100km from Taiwan), is an operation which is capable of accomplishing by small military power. So China assumes the international criticisms and reactions against the operation will be limited. Originally, the Kinmen and Matsu are not a part of Taiwan but Fujian province of China and these islands are not included within the territory of independent Taiwan by the pro-independence group has claimed. And even if the operation was realized, it will be limited to affect on the US global strategy and the Americans won't be so mad14.
However, these small islands are the right place where President Mao Zedong failed to occupy in 1950s and this background can give a reason for President Xi to insist being superior than Mao. For Xi himself, this gives a large amount of political benefit.
The Threats of China
CCP has a tendency to turn being aggressive attitude in foreign affairs when foundation of its power becomes unstable. As mentioned above, Xi Jinping's regime have a lot of problems.
In China, factors to prevent the warfare are increasing because of decreasing young population who can be mobilized to the war caused by decreasing number of children and enlargement of financial deficit caused by the stagnated economy. However there is no change for Chinese fundamental character of the dictatorship by CCP that strengthening the regime by evoking Nationalism. China is not a country who hesitate to commit the small-scale war which does not shake her backbone.
Historically, International Relation has been moved by (1) Persuasion and Criticisms, (2)Military Threats and Economic Sanctions, (3)Small-scale Local War, and (4)Large-scale Total War. The domestic politics of China as the dictatorship is not driven by the logic of persuading the people by the government but by the logic of coercing the people to support the government. Thus, Chinese government is better to use (1) Coercing than Persuasion, in other words, (2) Military Threats and Economic Sanction and (3) Small-scale Local War. China has tendency to solve the conflicts not by Persuasion but by Coercing.
Chinese coercive measure as a strongpoint does not work for the U.S. who has greater military and economic power but China would push his pressure on the forefront with coercing against the weaker Asian and African countries. These threats of China will become larger and larger for neighboring countries as well.
Tomohide MURAI is a Professor Emeritus, National Defense Academy of Japan and Advisor of JFSS. His publications include two books: Security over China (Chugoku wo meguru Anzenhoshō) (Minerva Publishing: Kyoto, Japan, 2007), and Essence of Failure (Shippai no Honshitsu) : Organizational Study of Japanese Military Forces (Diamond: Tokyo, 1984).
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1 "Democratic Peace" is a theory that the democracies hesitate to be engaged in armed conflict with other democracies, as compared to conflict with other types of regime. Politically, the theory that has high affinity with the trend of the Liberalism, is basically rooted in theories of Immanuel Kant in the old days. Michael Doyle, an American international political scientist, studied the hypothesis verification of historical affairs in 1980's. The theory, however, has been criticized and disputed by many following scholars. Doyle, Michael. 1983. "Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs." Philosophy and Public Affairs. 205, pp.207–208. Layne, Christopher. 1994. "Kant or Can't: The myth of the democratic peace." International Security 19.2: 5-49.
2 "City upon Hill" is an often-used rhetoric in American politics. Ronald Reagan, the 40th President of the U.S., in his farewell speech, cited a phrase of "shining city upon a hill" referred to by John Winthrop, an English politician, who had led English Puritans to the New Continent in the 17th century. In his presidential campaign, President Reagan used a slogan of "Let's Make America Great Again," celebrating the brighter future of the U.S., and played a role in passing down the phrase to posterity, by applying the self-affirmative myth of "America = World's model city full of the blessing" to present times. Kodama, Koji. "Ronald Reagan's Version of ‘A City upon a Hill' in the Postmodern Novels of the 19807s" ALSJ The 48th General Meeting Akita University, The American Literature Society of Japan. http://als-j.org/contents_811.html.（December 2, 2020 retrieved）.
3 Egorov, Oleg. "Over 50% feel nostalgic Soviet" Russia Beyond. November 25, 2016. https://jp.rbth.com/society/2016/11/25/650849.（December 2, 2020 retrieved）.
4 His statement is often used in many places now. An example can be found in the following website. "The 307th Foreign Policy Luncheon ‘Qualitatively Changing International Affairs and Relationship with Russia' October 19, 2018" The Japan Forum on International Relations. https://www.jfir.or.jp/j/activities/roundtables/307_181019.htm.（December 2, 2020 retrieved）.
5 "Address by President Moon Jae-in on Korea's 74th Liberation Day."(August 15, 2019) Cheibg Wa Dae website. https://english1.president.go.kr/Briefingspeeches/Speeches/638 (December 3, 2020 retrieved). All the sentences of "National Liberation Day of Korea in August 15, 2019" can be found in the following website.
"Address by President Moon Jae-in on Korea's 74th Liberation Day."(August 15, 2019) Cheong Wa Dae website. https://english1.president.go.kr/Briefingspeeches/Speeches/638.（December 3, 2020 retrieved）.
6 Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1959. "Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy." The American Political Science Review 53(1), pp.69-105. Seymour M. Lipset, an American scholar of Comparative Politics, advocated "Lipset hypothesis" that means a middle class formed by economic development can promote the democratization of regime. In fact, in Europe, English-speaking countries and the Latin America, he verified the hypothesis of no democratization without a certain level of income. As well as being a typical classical theory in the politics, his arguments affected policy makers since the middle classes had driven the democratization of the Latin America in 1970's, of the East Asia in 1980's and of the East Europe after the Dissolution of the Soviet Union. Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1959. "Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy." The American Political Science Review 53(1), pp.69-105.
Xi Jinping stated, for the first time, that every person has ideals and pursuits, every person has dreams. Now, everyone is also discussing the Chinese dream. I think that realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is the greatest Chinese dream since our modern times.
7 "Xi Jinping: Inherit past, Start the future, and Continue to advance towards the goal of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation." People's Daily Online. November 29, 2012. http://politics.people.com.cn/n/2012/1129/c1024-19744072.html.（December 3, 2020 retrieved）.
8 Hyodo, Shinji. 2015. ‘Chapter 2: Influential Zone of Russia, and the Arctic and Far East regions.' "Development of the Russian Far East / Siberia and Japan's Economic Security" The Japan Institute of International Affairs. pp.31-40.
9 "Hambantota Port to be a Chinese Colony due to 99 year-loan." The Sankei Shimbun. January 18, 2018. https://www.sankei.com/world/news/180118/wor1801180016-n1.html.（December 3, 2020 retrieved）.
10 "PLA builds Support Base in Djibouti." China Internet Information Center. July 12, 2017. http://japanese.china.org.cn/politics/txt/2017-07/12/content_41200362.htm. （December 3, 2020 retrieved）.
11 Zhang, Yongxiang. "40% of Chinese state-owned Companies towards Default." The Nihon Keizai Shimbun. November 22, 2020. https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO66534950S0A121C2FF8000.（December 3, 2020 retrieved）.
12 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights. https://population.un.org/wpp2019/Publications/Files/WPP2019_10KeyFindings.pdf (December 3, 2020 retrieved).
13 New organizations established in 2021 are these three; Central Comprehensively Deepening Reforms Commission（中央全面深化改革領導小組）, Central National Security Commission（中央国家安全委員会）, Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission（中央網路安全和信息化領導小組）. Sasaki, Tomohiro. 2016. "Establishment of CCDRC and Xi Jinping's leadership
（「中央全面深化改革領導小組の設置と習近平のリーダーシップ」／"Chuouzenmenshinkakaikakuryoudoshouso no secchi to Shu Kinpei no leadershippu"）. The state affairs of the U.S. and China during era of swinging International Order: Domestic affairs and foreign policies of China（『国際秩序動揺期における米中の動勢と米中関係―中国の国内情勢と対外政策』／Kokusaidouyouki ni okeru Beichu no dousei to Bei-Chukankei: Chugoku no kokunaijosei to taigaiseisaku）. Japan Institute of International Affairs, pp21-28.
14 Murai, Tomohide. "【SEIRON】China's Operation for Occupation of Taiwan." The Sankei Shimbun. November 17, 2020. https://special.sankei.com/f/seiron/article/20201117/0001.html.(January 28, 2021 retrieved）.
Tomohide MURAI is a Professor Emeritus, National Defense Academy of Japan and Advisor of JFSS. His publications include two books: Security over China (Chugoku wo meguru Anzenhoshō) (Minerva Publishing: Kyoto, Japan, 2007), and Essence of Failure (Shippai no Honshitsu) : Organizational Study of Japanese Military Forces (Diamond: Tokyo, 1984).
1 "Democratic Peace" is a theory that the democracies hesitate to be engaged in armed conflict with other democracies, as compared to conflict with other types of regime. Politically, the theory that has high affinity with the trend of the Liberalism, is basically rooted in theories of Immanuel Kant in the old days. Michael Doyle, an American international political scientist, studied the hypothesis verification of historical affairs in 1980's. The theory, however, has been criticized and disputed by many following scholars. Doyle, Michael. 1983. "Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs." Philosophy and Public Affairs. 205, pp.207–208. Layne, Christopher. 1994. "Kant or Can't: The myth of the democratic peace." International Security 19.2: 5-49.
2 "City upon Hill" is an often-used rhetoric in American politics. Ronald Reagan, the 40th President of the U.S., in his farewell speech, cited a phrase of "shining city upon a hill" referred to by John Winthrop, an English politician, who had led English Puritans to the New Continent in the 17th century. In his presidential campaign, President Reagan used a slogan of "Let's Make America Great Again," celebrating the brighter future of the U.S., and played a role in passing down the phrase to posterity, by applying the self-affirmative myth of "America = World's model city full of the blessing" to present times. Kodama, Koji. "Ronald Reagan's Version of ‘A City upon a Hill' in the Postmodern Novels of the 19807s" ALSJ The 48th General Meeting Akita University, The American Literature Society of Japan. http://als-j.org/contents_811.html.（December 2, 2020 retrieved）.
3 Egorov, Oleg. "Over 50% feel nostalgic Soviet" Russia Beyond. November 25, 2016. https://jp.rbth.com/society/2016/11/25/650849.（December 2, 2020 retrieved）.
4 His statement is often used in many places now. An example can be found in the following website. "The 307th Foreign Policy Luncheon ‘Qualitatively Changing International Affairs and Relationship with Russia' October 19, 2018" The Japan Forum on International Relations. https://www.jfir.or.jp/j/activities/roundtables/307_181019.htm.（December 2, 2020 retrieved）.
5 "Address by President Moon Jae-in on Korea's 74th Liberation Day."(August 15, 2019) Cheibg Wa Dae website. https://english1.president.go.kr/Briefingspeeches/Speeches/638 (December 3, 2020 retrieved). All the sentences of "National Liberation Day of Korea in August 15, 2019" can be found in the following website.
"Address by President Moon Jae-in on Korea's 74th Liberation Day."(August 15, 2019) Cheong Wa Dae website. https://english1.president.go.kr/Briefingspeeches/Speeches/638.（December 3, 2020 retrieved）.
6 Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1959. "Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy." The American Political Science Review 53(1), pp.69-105. Seymour M. Lipset, an American scholar of Comparative Politics, advocated "Lipset hypothesis" that means a middle class formed by economic development can promote the democratization of regime. In fact, in Europe, English-speaking countries and the Latin America, he verified the hypothesis of no democratization without a certain level of income. As well as being a typical classical theory in the politics, his arguments affected policy makers since the middle classes had driven the democratization of the Latin America in 1970's, of the East Asia in 1980's and of the East Europe after the Dissolution of the Soviet Union. Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1959. "Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy." The American Political Science Review 53(1), pp.69-105.
Xi Jinping stated, for the first time, that every person has ideals and pursuits, every person has dreams. Now, everyone is also discussing the Chinese dream. I think that realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is the greatest Chinese dream since our modern times.
7 "Xi Jinping: Inherit past, Start the future, and Continue to advance towards the goal of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation." People's Daily Online. November 29, 2012. http://politics.people.com.cn/n/2012/1129/c1024-19744072.html.（December 3, 2020 retrieved）.
8 Hyodo, Shinji. 2015. ‘Chapter 2: Influential Zone of Russia, and the Arctic and Far East regions.' "Development of the Russian Far East / Siberia and Japan's Economic Security" The Japan Institute of International Affairs. pp.31-40.
9 "Hambantota Port to be a Chinese Colony due to 99 year-loan." The Sankei Shimbun. January 18, 2018. https://www.sankei.com/world/news/180118/wor1801180016-n1.html.（December 3, 2020 retrieved）.
10 "PLA builds Support Base in Djibouti." China Internet Information Center. July 12, 2017. http://japanese.china.org.cn/politics/txt/2017-07/12/content_41200362.htm. （December 3, 2020 retrieved）.
11 Zhang, Yongxiang. "40% of Chinese state-owned Companies towards Default." The Nihon Keizai Shimbun. November 22, 2020. https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO66534950S0A121C2FF8000.（December 3, 2020 retrieved）.
12 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights. https://population.un.org/wpp2019/Publications/Files/WPP2019_10KeyFindings.pdf (December 3, 2020 retrieved).
13 New organizations established in 2021 are these three; Central Comprehensively Deepening Reforms Commission（中央全面深化改革領導小組）, Central National Security Commission（中央国家安全委員会）, Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission（中央網路安全和信息化領導小組）. Sasaki, Tomohiro. 2016. "Establishment of CCDRC and Xi Jinping's leadership
（「中央全面深化改革領導小組の設置と習近平のリーダーシップ」／"Chuouzenmenshinkakaikakuryoudoshouso no secchi to Shu Kinpei no leadershippu"）. The state affairs of the U.S. and China during era of swinging International Order: Domestic affairs and foreign policies of China（『国際秩序動揺期における米中の動勢と米中関係―中国の国内情勢と対外政策』／Kokusaidouyouki ni okeru Beichu no dousei to Bei-Chukankei: Chugoku no kokunaijosei to taigaiseisaku）. Japan Institute of International Affairs, pp21-28.
14 Murai, Tomohide. "【SEIRON】China's Operation for Occupation of Taiwan." The Sankei Shimbun. November 17, 2020. https://special.sankei.com/f/seiron/article/20201117/0001.html.(January 28, 2021 retrieved）.